McCain: 313, Obama: 230
I’ve updated my chart with a raft of new polls. We end up with the lead changing in just two states – New York and New Mexico. New York, of course, was probably to be expected.
The new batch of polls – including the Massachusetts one I already discussed – provide further proof of the emerging trend that I was talking about earlier. Namely – Obama appears to be doing better-than-expected in affluent and mostly-white states. I don’t think (barring a national landslide) that McCain will take from him many of the states that a “moderate” Republican might have expected to put into play – states in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest. He might lose a state or two in the Southwest as well.
However, Obama continues to show a fascinating degree of weakness in the Rust Belt, the Mid-Atlantic States, and even in parts of New England. Interestingly, he’s also weak in the areas where the Democrats have gone looking for gains in recent years – in the Border States and the Upper South. There’s absolutely no chance, looking at the polls, that he’ll take Virginia, West Virginia, or Tennessee – all states that the Democrats have considered to be targets or possible targets in recent races.
As I’ve said in the past, I think that Obama is going to lose by a fairly big margin – and I think that the media is going to miss it for a long, long time. His problem, one amplified by the debate last night, is that he’s culturally alien to the great silent majority of Americans.
In places with a lot of “educated” (scare quotes used advisedly) voters, a man named Barack Hussein Obama who seems more a citizen of the world than of America might well be seen as transgressive and innovative. But, in the rest of the country, he – and his increasingly cult-like followers – look like Visigoths.
And, yes, there’s probably a racial factor here. That’s regrettable, but it’s also reality. The truth – pointed out during the early primaries but carried over to today, is that Obama seems to do well in two kinds of areas:
a) Places with a large black population (a factor which doesn’t matter nearly so much in a General Election since the black vote is already a bloc vote there).
b) Places which have very few black people.
Mixed places – like the big coastal and industrial states – seem to be troublesome for Obama.
Looking at the numbers – and seeing no fundamental shift from 2004 – we’re faced with a fixed reality. The Democrats have to win Ohio and every single other state that they won in 2004 in order to win in 2008. If they lose Michigan, which seems quite possible, then they have to win Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada – and hold every single other state they won in 2004. The math is much more problematic for the Democrats than for the Republicans at this point.
Right now Obama is underperforming in Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, California, and Pennsylvania. He’s actually losing the latter. A Democrat who loses even one of those states cannot possibly win a Presidential election at this point in history.
The shape of the battlefield for the Democrats is very grim. The “50 State Strategy” that the nutroots and Howard Dean forced on the DNC is plainly a bust. There’s no chance of the Democrats winning even a single state that Bush carried by more than a few points in 2004. All of those resources that were thrown into Deep Red states have been wasted. Florida is off the table. Many of the other target states from 2004 and 2000 – Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina – are off the table. They have been reduced to a single path to victory – win Ohio and hold everything else. Anything else is going to end in their defeat.
McCain, on the other hand, has many paths of victory. At a minimum, he can win by winning every Bush state except for Ohio – but winning New Hampshire. Or Michigan. Or Pennsylvania. Or New Jersey. Or New York. Or Massachusetts. Or California. The last three are less realistic, but possible at this point in time.
When you consider what lies ahead for the Democrats, it’s perhaps even worse for them than it sounds.
If Hillary wins Pennsylvania big – and every sign points to yet on that score now – there’s no way she’s getting out before the convention. The Barone scenario, where she wins the popular vote, now appears quite possible. They’re going to spend all of their money and time up until then shredding eachother.
I don’t think that Hillary will win the nomination. But, I do think that she’s going to destroy Obama. One disclosure after another thrown at him for months. Racial and gender animosities pitched to new levels of fury.
If I were a Democrat, I’d be thinking about a third candidate. Not, I should add, that I think that a third candidate – foisted on a reluctant party at the last minute – would have more than a 25% chance of winning. But, I think that the Democrats have to begin considering what a broad national GOP victory – with a strong performance in a number of deep blue states – means for their Congressional delegations.
The new batch of polls – including the Massachusetts one I already discussed – provide further proof of the emerging trend that I was talking about earlier. Namely – Obama appears to be doing better-than-expected in affluent and mostly-white states. I don’t think (barring a national landslide) that McCain will take from him many of the states that a “moderate” Republican might have expected to put into play – states in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest. He might lose a state or two in the Southwest as well.
However, Obama continues to show a fascinating degree of weakness in the Rust Belt, the Mid-Atlantic States, and even in parts of New England. Interestingly, he’s also weak in the areas where the Democrats have gone looking for gains in recent years – in the Border States and the Upper South. There’s absolutely no chance, looking at the polls, that he’ll take Virginia, West Virginia, or Tennessee – all states that the Democrats have considered to be targets or possible targets in recent races.
As I’ve said in the past, I think that Obama is going to lose by a fairly big margin – and I think that the media is going to miss it for a long, long time. His problem, one amplified by the debate last night, is that he’s culturally alien to the great silent majority of Americans.
In places with a lot of “educated” (scare quotes used advisedly) voters, a man named Barack Hussein Obama who seems more a citizen of the world than of America might well be seen as transgressive and innovative. But, in the rest of the country, he – and his increasingly cult-like followers – look like Visigoths.
And, yes, there’s probably a racial factor here. That’s regrettable, but it’s also reality. The truth – pointed out during the early primaries but carried over to today, is that Obama seems to do well in two kinds of areas:
a) Places with a large black population (a factor which doesn’t matter nearly so much in a General Election since the black vote is already a bloc vote there).
b) Places which have very few black people.
Mixed places – like the big coastal and industrial states – seem to be troublesome for Obama.
Looking at the numbers – and seeing no fundamental shift from 2004 – we’re faced with a fixed reality. The Democrats have to win Ohio and every single other state that they won in 2004 in order to win in 2008. If they lose Michigan, which seems quite possible, then they have to win Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada – and hold every single other state they won in 2004. The math is much more problematic for the Democrats than for the Republicans at this point.
Right now Obama is underperforming in Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, California, and Pennsylvania. He’s actually losing the latter. A Democrat who loses even one of those states cannot possibly win a Presidential election at this point in history.
The shape of the battlefield for the Democrats is very grim. The “50 State Strategy” that the nutroots and Howard Dean forced on the DNC is plainly a bust. There’s no chance of the Democrats winning even a single state that Bush carried by more than a few points in 2004. All of those resources that were thrown into Deep Red states have been wasted. Florida is off the table. Many of the other target states from 2004 and 2000 – Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina – are off the table. They have been reduced to a single path to victory – win Ohio and hold everything else. Anything else is going to end in their defeat.
McCain, on the other hand, has many paths of victory. At a minimum, he can win by winning every Bush state except for Ohio – but winning New Hampshire. Or Michigan. Or Pennsylvania. Or New Jersey. Or New York. Or Massachusetts. Or California. The last three are less realistic, but possible at this point in time.
When you consider what lies ahead for the Democrats, it’s perhaps even worse for them than it sounds.
If Hillary wins Pennsylvania big – and every sign points to yet on that score now – there’s no way she’s getting out before the convention. The Barone scenario, where she wins the popular vote, now appears quite possible. They’re going to spend all of their money and time up until then shredding eachother.
I don’t think that Hillary will win the nomination. But, I do think that she’s going to destroy Obama. One disclosure after another thrown at him for months. Racial and gender animosities pitched to new levels of fury.
If I were a Democrat, I’d be thinking about a third candidate. Not, I should add, that I think that a third candidate – foisted on a reluctant party at the last minute – would have more than a 25% chance of winning. But, I think that the Democrats have to begin considering what a broad national GOP victory – with a strong performance in a number of deep blue states – means for their Congressional delegations.
posted by Adam Yoshida at
7:40 PM
1 Comments:
Here, let me help your sad little blog out...
Now you have a comment so all your readers can have something to talk about.
Both of them.
My advice to you is just to accept the fact that your ideology is a tired little dinosaur act that's dead and doesn't know it yet. There's nothing more pathetic than a fanatic hanging on to an dead horse beyond flogging.
Learn some humility, patience and respect for other people. Your arrogance and hubris will cause you a lot of untold suffering, my boy...
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