Could McCain Win Massachusetts?
Over at RealClearPolitics Anil Adyanthaya poses a question that I’ve been musing on – can John McCain win Massachusetts in November? Polling and other indicators suggest that the answer to the question is yes, he can.
A new poll out from SurveyUSA shows the race as Obama 48, McCain 46. I don’t think that this is an outlier. The last poll featured them tied 47-47. As well, the Clinton-McCain numbers show Clinton ahead by a sizable margin.
How do we explain this? Massachusetts, after all, is among the deepest of deep blue states. Hell, it was the only state to vote for McGovern.
Part of it, of course, is probably McCain’s appeal to independents. Part of it might well also be a gradual shift in the states. Bush performed better there in 2004, especially given Kerry’s home-field advantage, than most people thought he would. The GOP did well in a special election there last year.
And it’s not an impossible place for Republicans. It elected mostly Republican Governors over the last two decades – and Reagan won it twice.
Indeed, look at the Governor’s office for a reason for this. In 2006 the Democrats elected a black man full of hopeful words and not much else. He’s proven to be a disaster in office – with a negative approval rating. Perhaps that makes residents of the Bay State immune to Obama’s peculiar charms.
There’s another thing to think about. If John McCain can win Massachusetts – or even win close to 50% of the vote, he might well knock down John Kerry who, even in this very liberal states, has never been a popular Senator and who will probably be facing Jim Ogonowski, who ran that strong House race I mentioned earlier.
A new poll out from SurveyUSA shows the race as Obama 48, McCain 46. I don’t think that this is an outlier. The last poll featured them tied 47-47. As well, the Clinton-McCain numbers show Clinton ahead by a sizable margin.
How do we explain this? Massachusetts, after all, is among the deepest of deep blue states. Hell, it was the only state to vote for McGovern.
Part of it, of course, is probably McCain’s appeal to independents. Part of it might well also be a gradual shift in the states. Bush performed better there in 2004, especially given Kerry’s home-field advantage, than most people thought he would. The GOP did well in a special election there last year.
And it’s not an impossible place for Republicans. It elected mostly Republican Governors over the last two decades – and Reagan won it twice.
Indeed, look at the Governor’s office for a reason for this. In 2006 the Democrats elected a black man full of hopeful words and not much else. He’s proven to be a disaster in office – with a negative approval rating. Perhaps that makes residents of the Bay State immune to Obama’s peculiar charms.
There’s another thing to think about. If John McCain can win Massachusetts – or even win close to 50% of the vote, he might well knock down John Kerry who, even in this very liberal states, has never been a popular Senator and who will probably be facing Jim Ogonowski, who ran that strong House race I mentioned earlier.
posted by Adam Yoshida at
6:59 PM
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