Hillary Can Still Win This

Hillary's won Ohio. The networks haven't called it - but it's done. She's going to win there.

Looking at these numbers - the early voting and the exits - I think that she has a good chance at winning Texas. (In the interests of full disclosure: I stand to win $300 on Intrade if Hillary wins Texas).

But, even if she wins both: does she still have a chance?

I think that she does. Going into tonight, Obama has a 113 delegate lead. Coming out - if Hillary wins Ohio by a fair margin and wins Texas, it'll be a sub-100 delegate lead.

So, for the sake of argument - let's say that we come out of tonight with Hillary winning narrowly - 52% of the delegates to 48% for Obama. That means that, after tonight, Obama would have a ninety-nine delegate lead.

After tonight, Obama would then need 455 delegates to win the nomination - Clinton would need 554.

But, after tonight, there are only going to be 611 delegates, in total, left to be elected. In other words, from here, Obama will need 75% of the elected delegates to win. Clinton would need 90%.

It's mathematically impossible for either to win this just through the voters at this point.
Assuming Hillary pulls this out, there's simply no reason for her not to stay in to the bitter end. Especially as the battlefield begins to favour her.

Suppose that Hillary wins narrowly among the remaining primaries (possible, since the primaries are in territory which she ought to do well in - Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Indiana, Puerto Rico). Say 52% to 48%. That would leave the total going into the convention something like Obama 1863, Clinton 1789.

Once again, the conventional wisdom is turned on its head. This is far from Obama's.