The State of Play (2008)
Now it gets interesting. Rasmussen shows Huckabee moving to second place nationally.
If there really is a Rudy-Huck alliance then, looking at the raw numbers, this thing is damned near over.
As I see it, the way things go now:
Either Huckabee wins Iowa, or Romney narrowly does. Giuliani performs better than expected. Thompson fades.
Then we get to New Hampshire... McCain picked up the Union Leader endorsement today (or will tomorrow).
Romney must win New Hampshire - and by a lot. Being the former Governor of a neighbouring state. If someone else wins, he's probably done for.
And then... Well, looking at it, the scenarios we're left with are as follows:
1) Divided results up until February 5th, when Giuliani takes it.
2) Romney wins New Hampshire and picks up momentum.
3) McCain wins New Hampshire, then either wins or performs well in Michigan, then goes into South Carolina.
Frankly, I don't see a path to the nomination for Fred Thompson at this point, unless, of course, events overtake him. In particular, one possible event which would change the landscape would be if Rush Limbaugh decided to actually endorse him, a move which doesn't seem to be out of the question. But, it's a low-probability scenario.
And all of this, of course, assumes that more personal stories don't explode over Giuliani.
On the Democratic side, things are even more interesting.
Obama is closing. He has as much money as Clinton, more or less - and the ability to raise more.
I think that Iowa is damned-near a must-win for Hillary. She's like that old story about the ad company trying to sell Dog food.
The executives all sit in the room for hours, discussing the ads, the placement on shelves - but everything is perfect. Finally, one lonley secretary points out that the problem is that, "the Dogs don't like it."
That's Hillary's problem. She's got the money. She has the background. She has the machine. But the dogs don't like it. That is to say, I've met - and I'm including on the internet here - only a handful of people who actually like her and want her to be President. Her campaign is built upon inevitability and, especially in the case of Democratic primaries, inevtiability is meaningless - the Democrats like to eat their own.
If I was going to call it now, I'd say that the tickets:
Giuliani-Huckabee for the Republicans.
And...
Obama-Bredesen for the Democrats.
The latter is an entirely random guess, I should add - but it makes sense. Phil Bredesen is the moderate Governor of Tenneseee, with strong managerial experience (the CEO of a major health company no less).
If there really is a Rudy-Huck alliance then, looking at the raw numbers, this thing is damned near over.
As I see it, the way things go now:
Either Huckabee wins Iowa, or Romney narrowly does. Giuliani performs better than expected. Thompson fades.
Then we get to New Hampshire... McCain picked up the Union Leader endorsement today (or will tomorrow).
Romney must win New Hampshire - and by a lot. Being the former Governor of a neighbouring state. If someone else wins, he's probably done for.
And then... Well, looking at it, the scenarios we're left with are as follows:
1) Divided results up until February 5th, when Giuliani takes it.
2) Romney wins New Hampshire and picks up momentum.
3) McCain wins New Hampshire, then either wins or performs well in Michigan, then goes into South Carolina.
Frankly, I don't see a path to the nomination for Fred Thompson at this point, unless, of course, events overtake him. In particular, one possible event which would change the landscape would be if Rush Limbaugh decided to actually endorse him, a move which doesn't seem to be out of the question. But, it's a low-probability scenario.
And all of this, of course, assumes that more personal stories don't explode over Giuliani.
On the Democratic side, things are even more interesting.
Obama is closing. He has as much money as Clinton, more or less - and the ability to raise more.
I think that Iowa is damned-near a must-win for Hillary. She's like that old story about the ad company trying to sell Dog food.
The executives all sit in the room for hours, discussing the ads, the placement on shelves - but everything is perfect. Finally, one lonley secretary points out that the problem is that, "the Dogs don't like it."
That's Hillary's problem. She's got the money. She has the background. She has the machine. But the dogs don't like it. That is to say, I've met - and I'm including on the internet here - only a handful of people who actually like her and want her to be President. Her campaign is built upon inevitability and, especially in the case of Democratic primaries, inevtiability is meaningless - the Democrats like to eat their own.
If I was going to call it now, I'd say that the tickets:
Giuliani-Huckabee for the Republicans.
And...
Obama-Bredesen for the Democrats.
The latter is an entirely random guess, I should add - but it makes sense. Phil Bredesen is the moderate Governor of Tenneseee, with strong managerial experience (the CEO of a major health company no less).
posted by Adam Yoshida at
7:44 PM
2 Comments:
Obama-Sebelius
Actually, I'd prefer a Obama/Richardson ticket. That's about the only thing that can save us from King George's crypto-fascist governing style.
I don't like Hillary, either. But I'd vote for her over any Republican candidate.
Adam, it's good to see you're still frothing at the mouth since the days you used to foul up Amber Tamblyn's board.
At least you found the courage to finally allow comments on your site. I'll give you that much.
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