Why We’ll Have a Fall Election
I think that the conventional wisdom these days is that the Liberals will find some way of dodging voting against the Throne Speech, regardless of what it contains, in order to avoid fighting a fall election on what can only be described as disadvantageous terms for the Liberal Party. Frankly, as is so often the case, I think that this wisdom is wrong – the efforts of some (such as MP Byron Wilfert to float ways of avoiding an election) notwithstanding.
You might ask how I arrived at this opinion, as you are entitled to do. Put simply, I would sum up my belief as follows: while it may not be in the interests of the Liberal Party to have an election this fall, it is very much in the interests of Stephane Dion to have an election this fall – and he’s the one who ultimately gets to make the call.
Why would Stephane Dion want an election now? Put simply – it’s probably the only chance he has to ever become the Prime Minister of Canada. Perhaps more, it’s the only way he can solidify his tenuous grasp on the leadership of the Liberal Party. While, at the moment, I don’t see any scenario for a General Election that ends with M. Dion in 24 Sussex, we cannot forget the old dictum that anything is possible during a campaign. At the moment, Dion’s best plan is Napoleon’s battle plan (by way of Aaron Sorkin): show up and see what happens.
After all, what’s the alternative? Dion was the fourth (and much further down the list if you count the many people who declined to run) choice of the Liberals, selected without much thought or consideration simply because all of the other major candidates were in some way unacceptable to a large group within the party. In essence, he’s the movie that they rented at 11PM on a Saturday when all of the bestsellers were out. If he doesn’t pan out, most Liberals won’t hesitate before they pop him out, slap him in the case, close him up, and never think of him again.
If Dion tries to wait a year, the odds are pretty good that he will be out. His opponents barely even sheathed their knives before they drew them again. A lot of his supporters are already looking for cover. For Dion, this is now or never. He must not stand still. He cannot step backwards. So it must be forward.
In addition to the possibility that Harper will stumble in some spectacular way (see Tory, John), there’s another pair of linked thoughts which must already have crossed his mind. Simply put, Dion’s greatest weaknesses as a leader are probably fixable over time. True, at the moment he’s hobbled by his inability to communicate effectively in the English language – but he’s a smart guy, and I’m sure he can get better with time. The same hold for his management of his own caucus and his general abilities as a leader. Given enough time, these problems can be dealt with.
Dion probably doesn’t even have to win a fall election to come out a winner. At this point, with expectations having been sufficiently lowered, it seems probable that – with some skilful manoeuvring – Dion might well be able to hold onto the leadership after holding the Tories to another minority – an act which might buy him some serious time insofar as it seems likely that, after yet another election, every party would be in need of several years to recover.
You might ask how I arrived at this opinion, as you are entitled to do. Put simply, I would sum up my belief as follows: while it may not be in the interests of the Liberal Party to have an election this fall, it is very much in the interests of Stephane Dion to have an election this fall – and he’s the one who ultimately gets to make the call.
Why would Stephane Dion want an election now? Put simply – it’s probably the only chance he has to ever become the Prime Minister of Canada. Perhaps more, it’s the only way he can solidify his tenuous grasp on the leadership of the Liberal Party. While, at the moment, I don’t see any scenario for a General Election that ends with M. Dion in 24 Sussex, we cannot forget the old dictum that anything is possible during a campaign. At the moment, Dion’s best plan is Napoleon’s battle plan (by way of Aaron Sorkin): show up and see what happens.
After all, what’s the alternative? Dion was the fourth (and much further down the list if you count the many people who declined to run) choice of the Liberals, selected without much thought or consideration simply because all of the other major candidates were in some way unacceptable to a large group within the party. In essence, he’s the movie that they rented at 11PM on a Saturday when all of the bestsellers were out. If he doesn’t pan out, most Liberals won’t hesitate before they pop him out, slap him in the case, close him up, and never think of him again.
If Dion tries to wait a year, the odds are pretty good that he will be out. His opponents barely even sheathed their knives before they drew them again. A lot of his supporters are already looking for cover. For Dion, this is now or never. He must not stand still. He cannot step backwards. So it must be forward.
In addition to the possibility that Harper will stumble in some spectacular way (see Tory, John), there’s another pair of linked thoughts which must already have crossed his mind. Simply put, Dion’s greatest weaknesses as a leader are probably fixable over time. True, at the moment he’s hobbled by his inability to communicate effectively in the English language – but he’s a smart guy, and I’m sure he can get better with time. The same hold for his management of his own caucus and his general abilities as a leader. Given enough time, these problems can be dealt with.
Dion probably doesn’t even have to win a fall election to come out a winner. At this point, with expectations having been sufficiently lowered, it seems probable that – with some skilful manoeuvring – Dion might well be able to hold onto the leadership after holding the Tories to another minority – an act which might buy him some serious time insofar as it seems likely that, after yet another election, every party would be in need of several years to recover.
posted by Adam Yoshida at
10:19 PM
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