Dion's Surrender

My earlier prediction of a fall election was predicated on the idea that M. Dion was, at the very least, a man with a modicum of courage and sense. And, indeed, while it's still possible that Dion will vote for the Throne Speech - and then bring the government down over some specific issue - it now seems likely that the fall will bear witness to an unending series of humiliating surrenders by our friend Stephanie. Though, for the time being, I suspect that the Liberals will grin and bear it. A rougher and more cynical person than I might suggest that the Liberals should have expected such a fate when they elected an unrepentant citizen of France as their leader.

In all seriousness, though, if Dion really backs down as proposed here, he’s done. He’ll be safe through Christmas, because no alternative leader wants to be stuck in his strategic position over the long fall session. Like the Confederacy in 1865, the Liberals are now demoralized and divided – and Harper means to crush each pocket of resistance. Ignatieff, Rae, and the rest will leave Dion to preside over the ceremonies at Appomattox. But, at Christmas or shortly thereafter, a consensus will be reached (if it hasn’t already) that Dion will have to leave more or less immediately. And then he’ll go because, if this is any indication, he’s not likely to fight particularly hard for his job.

If they fall down on the Throne Speech, we’re done with the threat of an election for the year – barring events. Dion – a poor communicator with a reputation as indecisive – is going to have a very hard time explaining to anyone during the course of an election campaign why, if whatever measure he opposed was so odious, he voted for it before he voted against it.

It’s fight or fold for Dion, now.