In this campaign the Conservatives have caught all the breaks. Their careful policy-a-day strategy has gone a great length towards neutralizing the “Scary” factor while, elsewhere, the wheels have simply come off the Liberal machine. The scandal-ridden Liberal Party is discredited, out of cash, and out of luck. To put it simply, they have no one left to lie to. 2004 cannot be repeated at this point – the prior image of the Conservatives has been decisively broken. Barring a catastrophe of apocalyptic proportions, the Liberals are going to lose and Stephen Harper is going to be the next Prime Minister of Canada.

I wouldn’t attribute this to the Conservative strategy. Basically, as I see it, the Tories got very lucky. The strategy of caution was enough to close the gap – but not enough to seal the deal. It was events – that bane of politicians – that did it. The Income Trust scandal when combined with the Boxing Day shooting in Toronto created a perfect political storm – which Harper and the Conservatives were exactly positioned to take advantage of. If this momentum can be maintained through the debates and if Harper can put in a solid showing as the leading candidate for Prime Minister, we’re going to see the bandwagon effect increase. It’s quite possible that he Conservatives might move ahead of the Liberals in Quebec a move which would strongly improve Conservative fortunes in the Maritimes and in Ontario. At this point in time, I regard a Conservative majority government as being far more likely than another Liberal government of any kind.

If a Conservative majority – or a workable minority – should come to pass, it will be a revolutionary moment in Canadian politics. When that happens, Prime Minister Harper and his team will have a very limited window in which they can effect true change in Canada. That window will close very quickly – before the end of 2006. But, while it’s open, it will be our last chance to save our country.

Politics in ordinary times, I’m fond of saying, is like a steering wheel in a parked car. You can shift it a little to the right or a little to the left – but not very far. However, there are moments – rare, epochal moments – when that wheel comes unlocked and can be swung one way or another. When that moment passes the wheel locks again. It can again shift ever-so-slightly, but from the new position, as opposed to the old.

These moments are rare in our history. But they happen. We saw one such moment in Ontario in 1995 – when Mike Harris and the Common Sense Revolution changed that Province forever. We’ve seen it in Alberta in 1993. We saw such a moment, which was then partially fritted away, in British Columbia in 2001. We’ve seen such moments in the United States in 1981, 1933, and the 1860’s. In Britain, the moment came in 1979. And when the moment came – and when it was seized – nothing was ever quite the same again.

A Conservative government cannot govern as it has campaigned. That is not to say that a Conservative government ought to abandon its promises or to introduce policies entirely unmentioned in the campaign, but that it ought to ensure that – when the new government takes charge – there will be one hundred days of reform. These reforms ought to be “spin the wheel” reforms – things which, once done, are unlikely to ever be totally undone.

One of the hidden truths of politics is that things, once they are established, are next-to-impossible to disestablish, regardless of their merit or the public’s approval of them. For example, while social programs can be modified or reformed – they are never going to be totally undone. Similarly, the reforms to the same programs of the 1990’s are unlikely to ever be totally undone either. They will be tinkered with, but they will remain largely in place, just as the underlying programs will continue to stand.

As Prime Minister, Harper ought to move very quickly in three areas where fundamental reform is possible (in that it is supported by the public) and popular – and will be impossible for a future Liberal government (for there will be a future Liberal government) to ever undo.

To begin, there’s a wide consensus for the reform of the Canadian Armed Forces. On taking office, the Tories ought to immediately launch a comprehensive program to expand and reform the military.

The budget of the armed forces ought to be, at the very least, doubled – together with a large increase in the size of the force. More than that, as a method of effecting permanent change, a Conservative Government ought to break the Canadian Armed Forces up into a separate Army, Navy, and Air Force once again. Such a move would put a permanent Conservative stamp upon the Armed Forces and, better yet, would undo one of the great atrocities perpetuated against this nation by the Liberal Party.

Similarly, a Conservative Government should privatize the CBC and abolish other Arts subsidies within days of entering into power. Similarly, it should force the CRTC to lift all Canadian content restrictions upon television and radio. Not only would these moves free up a large amount of money – they would also be popular and impossible to ever go back upon. Every time a Canadian enjoyed watching first-run episodes of Battlestar Galactica on a Friday night they would be reminded that their pleasure is a direct result of the actions of the government in Ottawa.

Third, bills to institute mandatory minimum sentencing, abolish mandatory release, allow for consecutive sentencing, and to increase penalties for violent crime ought to be passed within days of the Throne Speech. There’s no reason – to excuse – to wait. We all know what needs to be done. If we win, we might as well do it.

It simply won’t do if we govern as we’ve campaigned. A Conservative government will not be a success if we hold back and hold off. We’ve seen this game before.

Every decade or so the people get tired of the Liberals, throw them out, and we get a Conservative government. Alas, the recent Conservative governments we’ve had – the Diefenbaker and Mulroney interludes between long periods of Liberal power – have failed to reverse the destruction wrought upon this country by the Liberal Party because they have governed exactly as they attained power – as cautious moderates.

There’s an open window now. If we win, we’re going to have a chance to change this country that comes along only once in a generation.