To begin, I expect that the 2008 primaries are either going to be the wildest in living memory, or they’re going to be dead silent. I doubt if they’re going to fall anywhere in between.

On the Democratic side, it’s entirely possible for Hillary Clinton to have the nomination essentially wrapped up before the end of 2006, if everything breaks perfectly for her and if she doesn’t face a serious fight for her Senate seat. That is, of course, a big if. If the national and New York GOP are smart (and they can’t get Rudy to jump into the race) they’ll literally go begging to find a decent candidate to take her on. If Hillary is forced to spend all of 2005 and 2006 preparing for and fighting a tough Senate race, it’ll let other possible Democratic candidates get a jump on her.

On the Republican side I see only two potential figures that might be able to spare the Republican Party a divisive primary battle: Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. Both have disclaimed interest in the race but, in politics, that doesn’t mean all that much.

I’m not at all sure that Dick Cheney’s health issues are insurmountable. If, come 2008, he seems healthy and his doctors are able to give him a clean bill of health, it doesn’t seem at all implausible that a “Draft Cheney” movement might emerge. And, of course, there’s always the possibility of the unthinkable, especially in this day and age. It’s far too soon to write off Dick Cheney in ’08.

Jeb Bush is, of course, ostensibly not interested in running for President because of the “dynasty” issue. But, let’s face it, if the other candidate is going to be the former President’s wife, the Democrats are going to have a hard time screaming, “We can’t be have the President’s brother running.” I’d look for him to be called upon to run if Hillary manages to build up both momentum and a huge war chest early on. Again, it would probably be run through a carefully orchestrated “Draft Jeb” movement.

Additionally, the spectre of the Terminator hangs over the race. If Schwarzenegger continues to be a popular Governor, if he’s re-elected, and if the Constitution can be amended in time (the really big if), he’d be a difficult-to-beat contender. Very difficult.

But, failing the emergence of an early nominee, both parties are likely to face major ideological battles between liberal, conservative, and ‘continuation’ factions. Most notably, while I expect Senator Chuck Hagel (I don’t expect McCain to run, for reasons I’ll get to in a bit) to get major support from the media, I expect that the real energy in the Republican race will be injected from the right.

If I were going to guess, the Republican primaries in 2008 may well end up looking a great deal like the Democratic ones in 2004. We’ll have a slew of major establishment players running simply because it’s “their time to run.” One of them (early guess: Bill Frist) will emerge as a shallow front-runner, holding 20% in the polls versus 10% or so for other candidates. The race will be thrown into disarray when a candidate who connects to the Republican Party’s conservative base catches on fire. I’ve also got a suggestion as to who that candidate may be: former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore.

Think about it for a moment. It appears to be increasingly likely that Moore, famous for his staunch defense of the Ten Commandments, will run in the primary against unpopular Republican Governor Bob Riley. If he wins the primary (which is also likely), Moore will be the next Governor of Alabama.

Now imagine for a moment we’re in January of 2007. Moore, upon being elected, immediately places an even-larger 10 Commandments monument on state property. In response, he’s slapped down by some Federal Court. Moore responds by declaring war against the secularization of the United States, declaring his candidacy for President.

Stranger things have happened.

Two names which I think will be quietly dropped from consideration over the next two years: John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Both would clearly like the job, to be sure. But they’re both up against certain realities.

For John McCain, I think his age and his health problems are insurmountable. It’s one thing to be a healthy and vigorous seventy-something. It’s another thing to be a sick seventy-something. I don’t think that anyone can look at pictures of John McCain from this year and pictures of him from five years ago and not conclude that his health has taken a turn for the worse. McCain is a good man, but I don’t think that he’s up for the job. And I’m sure, come election season, his opponents will say far worse. I expect him to back Chuck Hagel for President instead.

Rudy Giuliani is trapped by the social conservatives. It’s one thing to be a “moderate” on issues like gay marriage, gun control, and abortion like more than a few major Republicans are. It’s another thing altogether to be four-square on the liberal side of those issues. The only way for Giuliani to have even a slim hope of winning the nomination is to start shifting on those issues right now. He can’t fully flip, but he can stake out the most popular ground nationally (against gay marriage/for civil unions, pro-choice-but-for-all-possible-restrictions, etc.) and hope that the support from some prominent social conservatives (who I’m sure he’ll be able to buy) and his status as a hero of 9-11 will carry him through. I think that he’ll ultimately decide against the race and run for Governor of New York in 2006, hoping for a Republican loss in 2008 which will force the party to move towards the “center.”

In the end, I don’t expect the Republicans to turn either far to the left or far to the right. The odds are (and I realize this is a bold prediction) that the candidate will be a Governor from within the Republican mainstream.

However, there’s one way to make such an election bold: make the Republican nominee Minnesota Governor Pawlenty, Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts or Governor Bob Ehrlich of Maryland. All three easily fit within the realms of conventional Republican conservatism and, more importantly, hail from blue states. Nothing would better screw with the minds of the Democratic Party than to have the Mormon conservative Governor of Massachusetts as the Republican candidate for President. Heh.

Newt Gingrich has been making noises about running too, of course, but I don’t expect that to amount to all that much. Even the idea of a blue-state Republican probably won’t go anywhere.

Bill Frist and George Allen strike me as the most likely candidates at this point. I’d almost give an edge to Allen simply because Frist’s cat-killing past creeps even me out. I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to say that the idea of a young Dr. Frist slicing up stray cats for practice (as necessary as it might have been to becoming a world-class surgeon) isn’t going to play well.

There are others, of course. But I’m not writing a book.