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Wednesday, November 17, 2004
Is Proliferation the Solution in North Korea?
Just what is to be done about North Korea? During the Presidential campaign President Bush advocated the continuation of the present multilateral talks. John Kerry called for direct talks between the US and the DPRK. In other words: a choice between endless (and pointless) talk and bribery. Neither solution is satisfactory. But what else is there?

The military options run the range between the dangerous and the insane. Given that North Korea possesses long-range missiles, a nuclear arsenal, and a massive collection of artillery pointed at a modern metropolis (Seoul) the only real military option would be to attack them with sudden and overwhelming force, probably including the use of tactical nuclear weapons. This is a sub-ideal option.

Obviously the other option would be some sort of operation to assassinate Kim Jong Il. This is also a dangerous option for several reasons. The first is the obvious fact that, if we shoot and miss the odds are rather high that Kim John Il will shoot right back. The second, of course, is the concern that we just don’t know who would get the reigns after him. They, after all, might even be crazier than him.

Military force and assassination both have to remain on the table as options, but they can’t be our primary means for resolving this crisis. More than anything else, North Korea demonstrates the very real perils of allowing our enemies to become nuclear powers: once they’ve got those nukes ready for launch, we have to treat them differently.

So what are our options? A prolonged stand-off? Hopelessly dangerous military strikes? A risky assassination?

I don’t consider it desirable that American troops should spend the next five decades sitting within range of a Madman (and then a Madman’s son’s) nuclear bombs. Nor do I think that there’s any negotiated way out of this: our best option is to sit back and hope that the Korean regime collapses in on itself.

So, what are we to do to assure peace and security in the meantime? I have a one word answer: proliferate.

That’s right: so far as I can tell, the best solution to nuclear proliferation is what I like to call “Positive Proliferation.” So long as the United States treats all potential nuclear states equally it will find itself practically obligated to resist every third-rate power which seeks nuclear weapons for regional or national reasons.

Look at who North Korea’s neighbours are: Japan, South Korea, China, and Russia. Does anyone seriously think that those four countries aren’t capable of handling the problem on their own?

South Korea and Japan, the two nations to which North Korea poses the most serious threat, are both not nuclear powers at the moment. I see no real reason why this state of affairs should be perpetuated: let both of those nations become nuclear powers in order to change the balance of power in Asia. Let both of them deal with the North Korean problem.

In fact, it might not even take the acquisition of nuclear weapons by those nations to actually solve the problem. China very much does not wish to see the emergence of a nuclear Japan. Seriously suggest to them that the Japanese are planning to acquire nuclear weapons and they might well move on their own to end the reign of Kim Jong Il.

But the real issue at hand is that of North Korea. This urgent problem must be acted upon and such action must come with a shocking rapidity. The longer we wait the older and crazier Kim Jong Il gets and the more nuclear weapons he controls. Pen him in now and let others deal with the problem.

We cannot have an unconditional loathing for the bomb. While they are frightening, nuclear weapons can have their uses. One of those uses is the fact that they tend to have a stabilizing effect on any situation. Put nukes in the hands of Japan and South Korea and, at the very minimum, we are relieved of the difficult problem of being expected to use American nuclear weapons to guarantee the safety of nations that are more than capable of taking care of themselves.

Better yet, this solution might solve problems outside of Korea. Japan has for far too long been constrained by the bitter memories of the Second World War and the pacifist constitution and ideas imposed upon her in the years after that war. Japan will never again be a threat to the United States. So let us then let the sun rise again and see that nation restored to its former greatness.

China is rising and someday we shall have to face the threat that she poses to American power. What better way to do this than by truly getting the Japanese back into the fight? Japan’s beaten China and Korea before. It can do it again, if the need comes.

Despite the present focus on terrorism, the hard truth is that the greatest foreign policy challenges of this century are likely to emanate from Asia. And that challenge too can be summed up in a single word: China.

The sooner we can get our Asian policy turned away from dealing with a dumb little country like North Korea and focused instead on the inevitable confrontation with the emerging Chinese menace, the better.
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