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Wednesday, November 24, 2004
Are We Back in 1938?
By the time I finish writing this, it may already be dated. Events are very quickly spinning out of control in Ukraine. At this hour there are already reports of an imminent general strike… and of tanks on the move. Russian forces are reportedly operating with the Ukrainian in uniforms with Ukrainian markings. We may be on the verge of an East-West crisis of the sort not seen since the end of the Cold War.
I, for one, don’t think that it’s coincidental that the Russians made an announcement about the status of their nuclear arsenal last week. My expectation is that, at the present time, President Putin is waiting for some pre-arranged signal. Probably rioting by opposition protestors which spins “out of control” which will be followed by a request for the assistance of Ukraine’s Russian allies in the restoration of order. Then the tanks will come to Kiev like they did into Prague in ’68 and Budapest in ’56. And they won’t go home. If everything goes according to plan for the Russians the West will probably impose sanctions, but will only do so half-heartedly. After all, not all that many people will care that much about Ukraine. After the elapse of a healthy period of time, there will probably be a referendum in the Ukraine and it’ll vote to reunite itself with Russia. If this does come to pass: will it remind you of anything? As much as I hate to say it, a single word keeps creeping back into my head: Anschluss. Quite frankly, the parallels between the political-historical situation in Nazi Germany and Putin’s Russia are becoming too great to ignore. Both nations were great powers defeated in lengthy and hard conflicts. Neither nation was conquered at that end of that conflict, but rather suffered from an internal collapse. Following that collapse, each nation lost a great deal of territory, some of it acquired relatively recently and some of it part of what it would consider to be its ancestral homeland. Both nations initially enjoyed the benefits of freedom, only to suffer from an extreme economic catastrophe. As a result of that collapse, each nation turned away from liberal (in the classical sense) political leaders and towards authoritarian ones. In both cases, the rise of each leader and his consolidation of power was accelerated by a questionable terrorist event (the burning of the Reichstag and the Moscow apartment bombings). The ascension of both leaders brought a shockingly rapid economic revival. Both leaders, given power by legitimate democratic means, soon moved to consolidate their power and crush the opposition. Both nations were able to make common cause with some in the West by being staunchly against another great enemy of the era (Communism and Islam). Eventually, each nation began to seek to recover the “lost territories” of the last war. I’ve thought all of this for a long time. During the 1990’s I used to refer to Russia as “Weimar Russia.” Later, in recent years, I’ve become an admirer of President Putin as a result of the strong action he took to bring Russia back and because of his hard-line stand against the Moslem foe. But even I wonder. I’m not saying that Vladimir Putin is the next Adolf Hitler. There are, of course, substantial differences. I’ve seen no evidence of the sort of military build-up in Russia which occurred in Nazi Germany. Of course: just because there’s no evidence doesn’t mean that there isn’t one going on. From the outside looking in, Putin’s regime doesn’t appear to be even 5% as repressive as that of Hitler was and, I have to believe, that, if it was, in this age of the internet and international human rights groups we’d hear about it. But then: how can one be sure? Thankfully, even if the darkest fears of more than a few come to pass, there’s one thing we can be thankful for: George Walker Bush is no Neville Chamberlain. If this is 1938 again, George Bush can be counted upon to stand for freedom before it is too late to do so. That means standing against this election fraud, to the point of deploying US forces back into Eastern Europe if that becomes necessary. A line must be drawn across the Russian-Ukrainian border. “This far,” we must tell the Russians, “and no farther.” Others might counsel appeasement here: there’s already so much going on in the world, from Iran to Iran to North Korea. Doesn’t America have enough to do? It’s true that we live in a dangerous world, but something else is true as well: Putin isn’t another Hitler, but encourage him and he might turn into one. I’ve no doubt that, if given the choice, he’d like to see the whole of the former Soviet Empire restored. Were I a young Russian today, I would be an arch-nationalist, demanding the peaceful (or not-so-peaceful, whatever) return of Russia’s various “lost territories” from Ukraine, to Latvia, to Kazakhstan. Even in my present station, I’m sympathetic to that position. Russia is a country with a great history, but it needs more than words in dusty books to be a great nation. The solution here must be to stand with democracy in the Ukraine: not only because it is the right thing to do, but also because it is the practical thing to do. We do not wish to see Russian influence creep back towards Western Europe, an event which would require counter-moves on our part. And while, after the last few years, I wouldn’t much mind if the Russians conquered Germany and France and reduced their respective populations to serfdom, I would mind if they did it to the emerging democracies of Eastern and Central Europe, one of the places where the greatest hope for the future of Western Civilization can be found today. A stand in the Ukraine will teach President Putin the limits of America’s patience. I, for one, don’t mind if the Russians conquer all of Central Asia again or if they adopt truly Carthaginian tactics to settle matters in Chechnya. But I do care if they destroy freedom in one of our allies.
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