(This article, of course, is about Canadian politics. Those here for my insanity on other issues will have to wait a few hours. AY)

If Prime Minister Paul Martin drops the writ in early April for a May election, as is now generally considered likely, I believe that the result will be a Conservative minority government. While the Liberals hold a lead in the polls, that lead is soft, and would almost certainly erode under campaigning. A Conservative pick-up of about forty seats nation-wide, combined with Liberal losses in Quebec and scattered New Democratic gains, would result in the next Parliament looking something like this: 115 Conservatives, 100 Liberals, 55 Bloc Québécois, and thirty-eight New Democrats. On looking at these numbers I see two things: first, barring a Liberal disaster of unanticipated proportions, this is about the best that can be expected. With a lot of luck, perhaps the Conservatives could poach another ten seats from the Liberals and NDP, but not many more than that. Moreover, I see no likely scenario where the Conservatives are going to get the 155 members needed to form a majority government. This, I believe, might just be what the Liberals have in mind.

So, it’s the day after the next election. The jubilant Conservatives, with the most seats, are invited to form the next government. Prime Minister-elect Stephen Harper prepares to move into 24 Sussex. But how on earth is this new government to govern? A coalition with the NDP is out, for obvious reasons. Ditto one with the Liberals. The only way to survive even the first day of the new Parliament will be to cut a deal with the Bloc whereby they’ll sustain the government on important votes in exchange for some sort of devolution of Federal rights to the Provinces. But such an arrangement would be unstable, at best. Moreover, it would open up the Conservatives to accusations of “consorting with separatists.”

Now, let’s stipulate (for the sake of argument) that such an arrangement will survive for a few months, at least. How does this new Conservative government get anything resembling a ‘conservative’ budget through the Commons? The short answer is this: it can’t. The Bloc (the only possible partners in the House) won’t agree to any such budget without the Conservatives making unacceptable concessions to Quebec. So then, what comes next must be obvious: there will have to be a second election. Almost certainly within a year, perhaps within a few months.

This is where the Liberals’ strategy reaches its climax. An election (and any number of other controversies having since passed) means that the party (and its surrogates) can shout, “Old News!” whenever someone tries to bring up the Sponsorship Scandal. Moreover, many ‘average’ Canadian voters will feel that the Liberals, having lost office over the scandal, have been sufficiently punished. Worse still (for the Conservatives), the Liberals will have three new lines of attack in the second campaign.

First, they will (if a Conservative government has been sustained by the Bloc) accusing the party of coddling the separatists and thereby endangering the future of the Canadian federation. They will point to how the Mulroney-era effort to bring “soft nationalists” into that Tory government led to the 1995 referendum and the near-termination of Canada. This argument will not fly in Conservative strongholds in the West, but it might well work in newly-won Conservative ridings in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

Second, they will argue that the Conservatives are simply incapable of forming a majority government and that, therefore, a vote for them is effectively a vote for a third election sometime in the not-too-distant future. This can be played up both in financial terms and in an effort to win over the politically-weary.

Third, they will seek to paint the Conservatives as the, “enemy of mainstream Canadians.” It is natural that a new Conservative government (with a usually-large number of rookie MP’s) would make any number of mistakes, especially ones of the sort which could be portrayed as “politically incorrect” and therefore used to paint all Conservatives as extremists.

Paul Martin, of course, could add to all of this by continuing to campaign against the corruption of the Chrétien Government as though he were the Leader of the Opposition and not the former Finance Minister. While the media might remind us of his role during the upcoming election, they’ll be tired of the story by the next one and eager to beat up on the Conservatives. He’ll also be able to take credit to the revelation of any new Liberal-related scandals by claiming that their revelation is the result of his anti-corruption drive during his time as Prime Minister.

As well, if faced with a spell of political instability and the possibility of a Conservative government, a great number of nominal Liberal supporters who will vote New Democrat as a protest in a May vote will revert to their Liberal pedigree in a second election.

Of course, this might all be totally off-the-wall speculation. Only time will tell as to that. But, as we head towards an election, we all ought to keep in mind that no one has ever suggested that the Liberals are not devious and politically clever. Eleven years of corruption have dug them a real hole, one they’ll have to fight to get out of.