The stunning second place finish (and near win) by John Edwards tonight in Wisconsin prolongs the Democratic race. Depending on which polls you read in the last few days of the race, John Kerry fell by about ten points and John Edwards gained about fifteen. Had Howard Dean dropped out of the race and endorsed Edwards, he would have convincingly won. What this means, in essence, is that we have a second front-runner under siege. Kerry, I suspect, has already peaked: the recent hints of an affair, combined with the attacks on his involvement in the anti-war movement during the Vietnam War, have been enough to crack (though not yet shatter) the myth of his ‘electability’. Already we have seen him sink eight points among Democrats in national polls; I expect to see him sink a few more now.

Frankly, I think we are left with a situation like that in the 1976 election: the front-runner (in that case, Jimmy Carter) is fading with his opponent gaining rapidly. With no real way of generating more support (pretty much everything positive about John Kerry has already be said, repeatedly) the candidate it left holding onto a lead and hoping to run out the clock. The difference is this: time moves a lot faster in 2004 than it did in 1976. Governor Dr. Howard Brush Dean III went from certain nominee to also-ran in less than a week. However, the leads built up by John Kerry in many of the March 2nd states is much larger than that which Howard Dean ever held.

Thirty-eight points in California, thirty-seven in Connecticut, forty-five in New York, thirty-one in Ohio. Those are formidable numbers: and John Kerry certainly has more cash on hand (and the ability to raise more) than John Edwards. Unless something else unexpected happens, I’d expect Kerry to win a majority of delegates two weeks from now: though by narrower margins than expected. However, because of the way the Democratic system works, Edwards will still win delegates. Then, quite probably, he’ll win (or perform very strongly in) Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas on March 9th. He’ll also probably win Georgia on March 2nd.

Where will that leave us? Kerry already has about six hundred delegates versus 200 for John Edwards. If Dean were to endorse Edwards (and carry over most of his delegate support), that would leave Edwards with about 350. Without carrying the March 2nd primaries decisively, I’m unsure if Kerry can win the nomination without being put over the top by superdelegates.

But, how strong a candidate is John Edwards? He’s a man with a single term as a Senator, trial-lawyer charm, and a well-delivered stump speech which could have been used in virtually any election since the era of William Jennings Bryan. The man is a cipher, a smooth charmer with little substance. I don’t know how well he’ll hold up in the age of the War on Terrorism.

Quite frankly, I think that the odds of a contested convention just went up again. The speed of the race is resulting in a number of rapid booms and busts, which are creating a confusing process that is likely to produce a mixed result.

The real winner in all of this is George Walker Bush. The Democratic Convention in Boston, I think, might go down as badly as the Republican Convention in 1992. Without a certain nominee, not only will the public be exposed to screaming fights between Democrats, but probably to a number of virulently leftist speeches which would have a similar effect upon moderates as Pat Buchanan’s 1992 speech had.

Frankly, I don’t think that a brokered convention is likely to make Hillary Clinton the nominee. Why? Hillary is popular among Democrats, but not among the American people as a whole. Moreover, the combination of the messed up (and often bizarre primary process) and the emergence of Hillary would probably be enough to convince even a great many Democrats that the Clinton’s had been manipulating the process Urquhart-style from behind the scenes all along.