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Saturday, January 24, 2004
Who to Strike Next?
We face many challenges in the War on Terrorism. One of them is maintaining a sense of forward momentum while at the same time not overreaching or overextending our forces. This makes the selection of the first post-Iraq target a difficult task.
Iran is almost certainly out. While it would be technically possible to invade that nation and overthrow the Ayatollahs, doing so would not be practical at the present time because it would require the commitment of virtually all available military resources and would create the danger of a guerrilla war which would span both Iraq and Iran. Additionally, there is a strong possibility that the Iranian government may, in the relatively near future, be toppled from within. Syria makes a tempting target. It is militarily weaker than Iran, and could probably be defeated as easily as Iraq was. However, an invasion of Syria brings with it the risk of extending the guerilla war just as an invasion of Iran does. Moreover, a Syrian invasion brings the risk of drawing the United States directly into the battle in Israel. While I agree that North Korea must, sooner or later, be dealt with: it cannot be dealt with by half-measures and, frankly, I wouldn’t counsel any President to launch a major nuclear attack during an election year. Of course, if the North Koreans were to take further measures to bring about a crisis, it would be an entirely different matter. File this under “maybe.” The Americans perhaps provide the best opportunity for action. We have recently discovered that Cuba provided extensive military intelligence to Iraq before and during the conflict there. So far as I’m concerned, that’s an act of war. If necessary, I’m also quite certain that other causes for war can be found. But communism in Cuba is contained, and will probably die with Castro. While Cuban socialism remains a nuisance, it can probably be dealt with by the means of patience. In any case, Cuba is not the nation most responsible for the renewed spread of communism in this hemisphere, nor is it the nation with the most extensive links to our enemies overseas. That dubious ‘honor’ goes to Venezuela, led by Hugo Chavez. For, while Cuba continues to be active: the money and energy is now there. Frankly, we wouldn’t have this problem if the people who launched a coup against Chavez in 2002 had been sensible enough to kill the guy when the arrested him. But they weren’t, and so here we are. Chavez retains some measure of support among his people. How much exactly, I do not know. People within that country are attempting to recall him, but have yet to be successful. Certainly, by any objective measure, he is opposed by a strong minority, and perhaps even a majority. In any case, action against the Chavez regime in Venezuela would not exactly take the form of a straight invasion. Rather, it would look something like a “Coup-plus”, a well-organized coup supported by American military force, followed by a transition back to democracy. According to his former personal pilot, shortly after September 11th, the Chavez government gave a substantial amount of money to al-Qaeda, disguised as aid to the Afghan people. This is not the only suggestion that Venezuela is aiding terrorism. The former head of the nation’s border-control service says that he was pressured to cover up the identities of “Middle Eastern terrorists” passing through the country and on into the United States. Venezuela is also known to be passing weapons and money on to the communist FARC terrorists in Columbia. The nation has signed alliances with the former Iraqi regime, Libya, and Iran. All in all, it makes the perfect next target. Unlike in many of the other nations we are facing, there is already a large class of people ready to govern the nation after the destruction of a hostile regime. This makes the task of military action far simpler. The Venezuelan military is fairly weak and, in fact, much of it is probably of an anti-Chavez orientation. While it is certain that some percentage of the Armed Forces are pro-Chavez I strongly suspect that, under the pressure of war, they would rapidly be found hanging from every available lamp post and telephone poll. What will be left to deal with then are the various paramilitary forces assembled by the government. These forces could be hopefully dealt with by various means, preferably by indigenous forces. Naturally, it’s also nice that Venezuela has a lot of oil (and, in fact, are the primary oil supplier to the United States in our hemisphere), but that’s decidedly secondary to the removal of a regime that sponsors terror. Also wonderful is the fact that a certain segment of the left has an extreme affection for South and Central American communists which is certainly not shared by the American people as a whole. They would howl very loudly in response to such action, which would further help in exposing their pro-terror and treasonous nature. The time has come to strike against the terrorists again. We’ve hit them in Iraq, we’ve hit them in Afghanistan, and we’ve hit them elsewhere. It’s time to hit them in the Americas as well.
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