We are witnessing a transformation of the American political scene unlike any other in memory. The Democratic Party is moving towards a well-deserved death, and the Republican Party is moving towards ‘majority party’ status. For the next decade or so, the Republican coalition will be held together by the crisis of the War on Terrorism. When it is over, I expect that we will have two parties in American again, but that these parties will be ideologically unlike those we know today.

Two ideologies are dying in America: Leftism and Social Conservatism. I say that is a committed social conservative, and I say it in sorrow. Traditional, Pat Buchanan-style social conservatism will dead in America within twenty years. Leftist statism, like that of Ted Kennedy and the other aging grandees of the Democratic Party, will die with its leaders.

This means that, in the future America, there will probably be a broad economic consensus behind free markets. In the back of the minds of much of the present-day left-wing of the Democratic Party lurks hostility towards capitalism and the profit motive. This is largely missing among the young (the protests of the anti-WTO crowd notwithstanding).

So what will that leave us with? We will be left with ‘social conservatives’ who look broadly like conservative-leaning libertarians today (think of Andrew Sullivan, at least before he started celebrating the virtues of promiscuous sex) and ‘social liberals’ whose ideas are wild even by the standards of today. The social ‘conservatives’ of the future will probably accept homosexuality without the blink of an eye. Instead, they’ll be railing against new social evils: polygamy, a slip in the accepted age of consent, and other things along those lines.

The Republican Party of the future will, superficially, look like the Democratic Party of the mid-20th century. This, however, is not the best comparison. Rather, it will be something more of a return to the Whig roots of Republicanism, to Henry Clay’s “National System”. The Republicans will not be, exactly, the party of ‘big government’ so much as the party of ‘big-thinking government’. Over time (and with rising expenses) support for massive social programs will fall and then evaporate, as the payees come to vastly outnumber those being paid. Instead, Republicans will be the party of what, for lack of a better term, I might call ‘internal improvements’. They’ll want government funded space exploration (and, probably sooner than you think, colonization). This is much the long-term direction that President Bush is taking government in now. Republicans, in other words, will be the party of Alexander Hamilton.

Republicans will be the party of humanitarian Empire. Even decades from now, small groups will be stationed across the globe for various reasons. Republicans will, in the fashion of many British imperialists, seek to use that power to better the people whom they must guard. Look for a lot of ‘big projects’, like President Bush’s AIDS initiative.

Finally, Republicans will be the party of immigrants. This is clearly the long-term goal of Karl Rove and others and, I believe, they will eventually pull it off. Similarly, look for a return of blacks to Republican ranks, though not to the extent that they support Democrats today. Over the course of a generation or two, under changed conditions, I expect it to be a rather easy sell. Look for a lot of “party of Lincoln” talk.

The second party will be the more ‘conservative’ of the two. It will be something of a fusion between libertarianism and present-day conservatism. It will be, for lack of a better term, the “party of no.” It will be hostile to government programs, hostile towards (or uncertain about) the Empire, and broadly opposed to immigration.

Naturally, it will be a minority party, but it will help to keep the Republicans honest, and manage to win from time to time. It would not shock me if, eventually, these people even ended up under the ‘Democratic’ banner.

Fragments of the left and the old right will remain, but they will be isolated and probably hold no more than a few scattered offices across the country. Eventually, most of our old battles will be washed away by demographics.

The young, however many of us feel, is largely accepting of homosexuality. Eventually, therefore, gayness will be totally mainstream. The young are broadly pro-choice, but secure enough in that position to avoid the pro-abortion extremism of the present age. Abortion will be available, but more restricted than it is today. Reasonable anti-abortion measures will not be opposed when the fear that abortion altogether will be outlawed disappears.

Disputes over biotechnology will all be settled in favor of further development. Aside from a small faction, this generation is the most pro-technology in history, and growing more so with time. While disputes over genetically-modified food will continue in Europe, they will be almost unknown in America.

Racial issues in America will be almost meaningless within a few decades. As young minorities replace the old, affirmative action will gradually fade from memory. So, probably, will the Confederate flag.

The biggest challenge to all of this will come with the great medical/pension crisis of the next few decades. Baby Boomers will devise big government solutions to their problems. I expect that they will seek to bail out Social Security by seizing the assets of private pension funds and retirement accounts. Social Security will be expanded into a National Pension, which encompasses all other pensions. This idea should surface some time around the year 2015, when the Baby Boomers really begin retiring in earnest, and I think that we’ll probably fight at least one Presidential election over the issue (or something like that). Look for that to be some time after 2020.

Naturally, I could well be entirely wrong. If pundits can’t get what’ll happen in an election a week away right, why should we be able to get what will happen in twenty years right?

But it’s worth talking about. The reality of demographic change presses the matter on us all. Our politics are changing. I do not entirely welcome this, but we must come to deal with it and plan for the future.