If only he’d kept his mouth shut a little bit longer. Back on December 12th (before, even, the capture of Saddam Hussein) I noted the fact that Dean was seemingly unable to, despite half a year of fawning publicity, break 25% in national polls of Democrats and predicted that Dean was about to follow the course of John McCain, Gary Hart, and all those other highly-heralded candidates who seemingly come out of nowhere and then fade as fast as they rose. Had Dean won the nomination, the general election campaign would have been an awful lot of fun. I suppose that Democrats have begun to see that as well. They might agree with his stances but, looking at some of his gaffes, they must have nightmares about what Governor Dr. Howard Brush Dean III, Democratic nominee for President of the United States, might let slip on October 20th.

The only way for Dean to win the nomination was going to be for him to win Iowa, ride that to a huge win in New Hampshire, then win at least half of the February 3rd Primaries as a way of proving his national viability. As things stand today, it doesn’t look like he’s going to take Iowa and his lead in New Hampshire appears to be in extreme danger. In fact, as things stand today, the Democratic field looks to be almost back at the beginning. I can see Wesley Clark winning the nomination, I can see John Kerry winning the nomination, I can see Dick Gephardt winning the nomination, and I can even see John Edwards winning the nomination. Some of these scenarios, of course, are more likely than others: but all remain plausible to some degree.

It is equally plausible that the Primaries might not leave anyone as the nominee. This is, to put it mildly, a Republican dream. It is already quite clear to me that any nominee other than Dean is going to have a hard time bringing onboard Dean’s supporters. Moreover, Dean has the money, temperament, and base to wage a bloody fight, even if his hopes for a knock-out win are shattered over the next ten days.

One of the things that makes this campaign so interesting is the ability of the internet to tell us what the core supporters of various candidates are saying. This is true, most of all, of Howard Dean. The machine that has lifted him into power isn’t capable of stopping on a dime. If Dean, as I now expect, loses in Iowa (and perhaps even New Hampshire) his supporters will not accept this as the honest verdict of the people. Rather, they will attribute any such loss to sinister conspiracies, media bias, and various other forms of malfeasance.

What we are looking at now is, at the very minimum, a month-long Democratic Götterdämmerung, an apocalyptic battle of epic proportions. If you think that the campaign has gotten negative now, wait until Howard Dean is down five points in California on the eve of the primary there. His followers’ cult-like devotion will be well-tested in the months ahead.

Frankly, I now wish that we hadn’t gone after Dean so much as we did. I’m still hoping, against all hope, that Dean will be the Democratic nominee. Bush would probably have won 65% of the vote, up against the guy.

It was actually Dean’s rise that was also his undoing. The Clinton Wing of the Democratic Party was determined to get the guy from the start, but it was really the conservatives who did it in the end. People would often say to me, “why, if you think Dean is such a bad candidate, are you spending so much time attacking him?” The best answer I can think of is this: it seemed like a good idea at the time. For a little while it seemed like fawning media attention, combined with the short primary schedule, would propel Dean to the nomination, so we might as well get started with the attacks.

The truth is, the guy was just so easy to whack, it was hard to resist. I mean, a guy who leaves a Church over a bike path hardly sounds like Presidential timber. The assaults were so much fun that all of us on the right got a little carried away. Then, seeing how easily Dean would be defeated, the media (which loves a fight anyways) jumped in as well.

Now I’m worried that the nominee will be John F’ing Kerry who, versus Howard Dean, has the major advantage of being apparently sane. While I suspect that he’ll be beatable, he won’t get blown apart in the same fashion as the Mayor of Vermont would have. But, perhaps, it will be General Wesley Clark, who might be aptly characterized as General George McClellan II, who will be equally easy to destroy.

In any case, whoever the nominee is will be bruised and broke by the time they’ve been crowned. Needless to say, I’m looking forward to the coming months.