Well, the end of 2003 is upon us and, as is customary, every pundit in the world is offering their predictions for the New Year.

The Election:
Governor Dr. Howard Brush Dean III will not win the Democratic nomination. He will win in Iowa, knocking Dick Gephardt from the race and he’ll win in New Hampshire, but by a much narrower margin than expected. In fact, the big news on January 27th will be the strong showings in New Hampshire by both John Kerry and Wesley Clark, followed by a debate on over who is now the “Anti-Dean.” Dean will win 35% of the vote, Kerry and Clark will split 40% of the vote, and the remaining 25% will be divided between the rest of the field.

The results of the primaries a week later in Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina will be divided, which will further hurt Dean’s chances. Democratic Underground will become a battleground, as both sides accuse the other of being kept alive by Republicans crossing over and voting in the Democratic primaries (Dean supporters will charge that they’re voting for a more moderate candidate to try and stop Dean while Clark supporters will charge that they’re voting for Dean in order to ensure a Democratic defeat in November).

To the surprise of everyone, Al Sharpton will win the South Carolina Primary, thereby adding a new dimension to the race. After February 3rd, the tide of battle will turn against Dean, leading his supporters to new levels of hysteria. As the primaries wear on, Dean’s support will gradually drop but he will remain in the delegate lead, especially as the sense of being under siege drives his most dedicated followers to increasing levels of exertion.

Finally, Dean will have to be done in through one of three methods: all of the surviving Democratic candidates will endorse one candidate, one of the Clintons will step in and endorse one candidate, or superdelegates will step forward and pledge themselves. By the time the early primaries are through, it will be clear that the only candidate in the field who can command enough support to wrest the nomination from Dean is Wesley Clark.

However, Dean will not give up. With no candidate commanding a majority, he will fight his way right into the convention. He will seek to have rules changed to allow all delegates a free vote on the first ballot and, failing at that, he will try to prevent anyone from achieving a majority. There will be much talk of a Clark-Dean or Dean-Clark ticket but, by this point, there will be so much bad blood between the two candidates and their supporters that such a thing will be impossible.

During the long wait between the end of major primaries and the convention, both sides will smear eachother. Dean’s supporters will attack Clark’s military record, pointing out his involvement in Waco, that he was relieved from command as SACEUR, and his general unpopularity among military officers. Republicans will join in this. Clark will use proxies, especially in the more socially conservative areas of the nation, to attack Dean over gays and abortion. If caught, he will disavow any knowledge of such activities. Republicans will gladly assist in this as well.

As the Democrats gather in Boston many will talk about the need for an entirely new ticket. In the end though, the party machinery will throw the nomination to Clark, who will take a solid moderate with Washington experience as his running mate. Although Howard Dean has repeatedly foresworn the idea of an independent campaign, I expect that, in the end, he will storm from the convention floor and do just that. After all, if he doesn’t win this year then he’s done for. The sort of lightning which has created his movement doesn’t strike twice.

His best hope at this point will be to campaign as an ‘independent Democrat’ claiming to represent the authentic Democratic Party and to then seek to outpoll the regular Democratic nominee. It doesn’t make much sense when it comes to bring about a Democratic victory, but it makes a lot of sense when it comes to helping out Howard Dean. By that point in time his remaining supporters will have been through so much that they’ll be willing to follow old Howard anywhere.

Clark will seek to gain traction by attacking President Bush in the general election, but the crowd motivated by such attacks will already be behind Howard Dean who will be busy attacking Wesley Clark. Faced with this situation, the Bush re-election campaign will resemble Reagan’s 1984 ‘Morning in America’ campaign, with most of Bush’s energy going into campaigning for down-ticket candidates. Unlike 1984 and 1972, where Reagan and Nixon’s campaigns sought to win fifty-state majorities rather than increasing their coattails, Karl Rove will use the President to make the difference in key Senate and House races across the country.

Between various efforts at redistricting and Presidential campaigning, the Republicans will pick up thirty seats in the House. The real battle will come in the Senate, as the GOP seeks not just a majority but a filibuster-proof majority. The Republicans will pick up all of the open Southern seats: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Louisiana. They will lose in Illinois, but hold Alaska. The biggest upsets of the year will come on the West Coast, where Bill Jones will defeat Barbara Boxer in California and ‘Giant-Killer’ George Nethercutt will knock off Patti Murray in Washington. Republicans will desperately fight to win South Dakota, North Dakota, and Nevada in order to gain sixty seats in the Senate, but will win only two out of three, leaving them one short. However, with the support of moderate Democrats, Republicans will finally be able to break Democratic filibusters on Judges.

President Bush will win in a landslide: 45 states and 60% of the vote. The regular Democrat will score 20% percent and Dean will score 20%. The posters on Democratic Underground will blame the results on Diebold before cutting their wrists or jumping from tall buildings.

Oh, yes: and the 2008 Presidential Campaign will begin at about 12:01AM on November 3rd, 2004.

The War:
Osama Bin Laden will either be killed or will be confirmed as having been killed in December 2001 during the Battle of Tora Bora. The situation in Iraq will gradually grow in stability.

At some point during the year, the Iraqi guerrillas will pull off a spectacular attack which the media will depict as a major reversal for the Coalition. However, such an attack will actually bolster American will to win the war.

Syria will see the writing on the wall and come to an accommodation with the Untied States such as Libya has. Howard Dean will claim that it is the result of Bill Clinton’s patient diplomacy.

Ariel Sharon will cheer leftists and anti-Semites the world over by resigning as Prime Minister of Israel. The above-mentioned individuals will be less-cheered when he is replaced by Benjamin Netanyahu, who proves to be very popular with the Israeli people. The conflict in Israel will continue, but at a reduced pace as both sides become increasingly war-weary. The Israelis will work to effect a unilateral separation.

North Korea will, when the world gets bored of hearing their words, test a nuclear device. This will prompt Japan to modify its Constitution and to debate acquiring nuclear weapons. The United States will continue to pursue its strategy of turning the North Korean problem into the problem more of South Korea, Japan, and China then itself.

If there is another major terrorist attack, there will probably be another invasion or military strike. Iran, Syria (if it has yet to capitulate) and the Sudan are all strong possibilities.

If President Musharraf is killed or there is a coup in Pakistan, the US will launch a spectacular lightning attack in the hopes of disarming Pakistan of nuclear weapons. If such a move fails, India might choose to launch a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Pakistan.

Venezuela will increasingly become visible as the year goes on. By the end of the year a majority of US neo-conservatives will favor military action against Chavez.

And, I think, that’s about it. Now we’ll wait to see how wrong I am.