Let’s think about a hypothetical scenario. Imagine that Al Gore had been elected President in the year 2000, that 9-11 happened, and Gore responded by invading Afghanistan (which, under a Gore Administration, dragged on into mid-2002, because there was no Donald Rumsfeld to drive the adoption of an innovative strategy). He followed a course on the rest of the war broadly similar to that followed by George W. Bush. By the end of 2002, he remains a relatively popular President and even manages to win Democratic control of the House and Senate.

There are several major Republicans running for President. George W. Bush and Jeb Bush, who both narrowly win re-election, opt out of the race. Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee is the early leader, followed by Representative Tom Delay of Texas, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Governor Bill Owens of Colorado, Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, political commentator Alan Keyes, and, finally, former Governor George S. Patton III of South Carolina.

While they vary by degree, most of the major candidates (Frist, Delay, McConnell, Owens, and Santorum) offer pretty much the same package. They strongly attack Gore, who is hated by the President, promise to cut taxes, and promise to wage the war more strongly. Major Republicans line up behind various establishment candidates, with the youthful Frist tapped as the early front-runner (and generally viewed as the most moderate of the group) while other Republicans divide their support between the other candidate who, while conservative, generally remain within the Republican mainstream.

Governor Patton (the grandson of the famous General and a fictional character) doesn’t do that, however. While the other candidates discuss waging the War on Terrorism “more strongly” in general terms, he makes fiery speeches in which he promises to invade Iraq and Iran, and strongly suggests that he would like to use force elsewhere as well. While the other candidates speak against gay marriage, he promises to do whatever he has to in order to stop gay marriages- even once making a comment (which he then, with a wink, retracts) about sending in Federal troops to break up gay weddings. He promises to push for an amendment to the Constitution banning abortion, and discusses his desire to throw abortionists in jail or, perhaps, execute them. He comes out strongly and publicly for racial profiling. He is, in a word, unelectable.

At first Governor Patton is more or less regarded as a fringe candidate and he rests at less than 5% in national polls. But, through Free Republic and other conservative internet sites, he steadily gains support of Republican activists. The party elders detest him, but his speaking style (which owes more to George C. Scott than it does to his grandfather) wins him even more supporters. Before long, he begins to climb in national polls, and the media picks up on him as the next big thing.

He takes hits for his positions, but that merely reinforces his support as his followers give him more money to “defend Patton.” Soon polls show that he has the support of a third of likely Republican voters. However, the same polls also show that three in ten Republicans aren’t even sure if they’d vote for him in a general election versus President Gore. While the people on Free Republic and Patton’s campaign blog may hate Al Gore, the majority of the American people do not. They may disagree with him, but they view him as having generally done an acceptable job. They may wish change, but they do not wish radical change.

Patton actually has a fairly moderate record as the Governor of South Carolina- he’s taken a stand against flying the Confederate flag, for example. Of course, it’s only moderate by the standards of South Carolina- but it would help in a general election, but only if he can shift. The problem is that he can’t shift because, if he does, he’ll rapidly lose his base. One of the greatest problems associated with gaining support via the internet is that you can lose it via the internet just as rapidly.