How European military development moves over the next decade depends heavily upon how European integration functions over the next decade. Absent the creation of a strong and centralized European military command, I see the creation of a pan-European military establishment that is under-equipped, poorly commanded and virtually undeployable due to squabbles among various member states. Moreover, the troops assigned to such a command would probably end up being those deemed undesirable by the individual national militaries. Such a force would be good for little more than patrolling the streets of Croatia with rather less efficiency than shown by UN peacekeeping forces in the last decade.

The only likely alternative I can see is where the EuroForce becomes an essentially Franco-German creature, with the occasional unit from the rest of Europe thrown in for show. Failing that (again: absent a situation where a European force becomes the actual property of the Union, under effective national command) a situation will be created whereby whatever forces exist on paper will not exist in fact.

My preference would be the creation of a strong European military force independent of NATO. I wish this for several reasons:

1) An effective European military build-up, independent of NATO, would offer a very good excuse for a US military build-up. I can easily see a situation a decade from now where Congressmen have charts of European strength vis a vis that of the US and warn of ‘falling behind.’
2) The creation of robust European military forces would allow the United States to abandon its role in the defense of Europe, thereby freeing troops for duty elsewhere.
3) The reignition of European martial spirit would be a hopeful sign that Europe is emerging from its cultural malaise on the use of force and returning to the old values which once made what is now derided as ‘Old Europe’ a force to be reckoned with and would probably lessen the chances of the social collapse which otherwise seems inevitable in Europe.
4) European developments in military technology, along with those by the Chinese, would spur American advances in military technology. I am confident that the United States can win such a race.

However, I strongly feel that such a development is unlikely. The reason why Europe (either individual nations or Europe as a whole, excepting Britain) lacks effective military forces is not that it cannot have them, but that it does not desire them. If Europeans were truly moving towards a serious increase in their military forces, then the cultural chasm which has opened between them and Americans would be shrinking.