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Monday, October 13, 2003
On to Tehran
Forget about Iraq for a moment. Yes, there is still work to be done in stabilizing Iraq. A new Iraqi government has to be formed, what resistance remains must be broken, and the Iraqi economy must be improved. But the outcome there is not in doubt so long as the Oval Office remains in the hands of a patriot. With this in mind, we must move forward. We cannot allow politics to prevent us from acting as dangers gather.

The urgent threat in the Middle East emanates from the Islamic Republic of Iran. For more than two decades the Iranian regime has sought weapons of mass destruction, oppressed their own people, and exported terrorism abroad. Iran is the primary supporter of Hezbollah, an Islamist group which has killed many innocent Israelis and which is working to organize terrorists within Iraq.

Evidence has been uncovered, proving that Iran has imported weapons-grade plutonium and that it is actively engaged in the production of nuclear weapons. Unlike Iraq, where the threat was gathering, but not imminent, the threat posed by Iran is. Iran has been given until the end of this month to provide a response to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s proof of Iran’s nuclear activities. The odds of their compliance are minimal. Unlike Iraq, which was years away from producing nuclear weapons, Iran is probably just months away. The State of Israel is already reportedly contemplating launching strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. They should do so. But the United States must act as well. A nuclear Iran would be the gravest threat to the peace of the world since the fall of the Soviet Union. A nuclear Iran would seek to use its weapons to dominate the Middle East, counter American power, and threaten Israel.

Worst of all, the Iranian regime has allowed its country to become the new host of al-Qaeda. At the present time there are more than four hundred known members of al-Qaeda being sheltered within Iran, including Saad Bin Laden, the son of Osama, who has taken an increasingly important role in running the organization. These individuals are being protected by individuals within the regime. The scale of the threat posed by an revived al-Qaeda, with safe shelter, and a nuclear-armed Iran is nearly unimaginable. The consequences of such a combination would be a disaster for the world.

There are those who claim that we can wait out this threat- that, given enough time, the Iranian people will act to remove the regime that oppresses them. Certainly, given the great anti-regime protests of the summer of 2002 and the upheavals following the battle of Iraq, I felt that such a move was inevitable. But we cannot afford to wait forever. The Iranian regime, for all of the turmoil and trouble, appears today to be as stable as it was a few years ago.

Time is now of the essence. The Ayatollah’s must go. During the pre-war buildup an ultimatum can be given to them but, to say the least, the odds that they would agree to any American demands are decidedly low. Since they will not going willingly and since they cannot be overthrown from within- they must be forced from power by the force of arms.

This will not, by any standards, be an easy or simple task. While we do not know the exact state of readiness of the Iranian military, it is fair to say that it is probably much stronger than that of Iraq. Iran’s Air Force, if not modern, is at least somewhat functional. It has a Navy with three Russian-made Kilo class submarines, deadly killers which could potentially threaten American vessels in the Gulf. Its coasts are lined with Chinese-made Slikworm anti-ship Cruise Missiles. Its Army, while less than modern, is more than the hollow shell which the US fought in Iraq. Altogether, Iran is not strong enough to defeat the United States- but it is strong enough to put up a fight.

But the difficulty of a fight does not mean that it is not worth fighting. Given the performance of a force of about 150,000 in the Iraq War- imagine what a force the size of that deployed during the Gulf War could do. Whatever air strength possessed by Iran would be rapidly reduced and eliminated by Allied forces- forces which could rapidly advance into the country, slaughtering Iranian units which attempted to resist. The Iraq War, because of its peculiar circumstances, was fought with a great deal of restraint. Without that, with the use of all of the most advanced weapons, the Iranian military could be savaged in a matter of days.

Now, I admit, this will place a great stress on the American Armed Forces. But for what purpose does America have a military if not to confront so urgent a threat? If anything, the Iranian threat shows exactly why the size of the Armed Forces must be rapidly expanded. Perhaps, along with the mobilization for war, President Bush could reach back to older days and issue a call for volunteers- perhaps even allowing the US military to raise volunteer units of foreign troops for overseas duty in places such as Iraq. Should any nation seek to take advantage of the situation, well, there’s a reason why the United States retains an extensive arsenal of unconventional weapons.

The time to strike against Iran is now- not tomorrow, when Iran may have become the North Korea of the Middle East. For more than two decades the mad fanatics who rule Iran have assaulted the United States and its allies. Now is the time that they pay the price of their intransigence.
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