This October 7th there is a serious chance of having a real conservative elected as the next Governor of California. By ‘real conservative’, I am naturally not referring to Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has, in just over a week of campaigning, demonstrated himself to be just as liberal as any Democrat who is likely to get elected. The decision to bring Rob Lowe and Warren Buffett onboard as campaign observers shows very clearly what many Republicans had feared: a Governor Schwarzenegger would be surrounded by liberal Democratic advisors and, almost certainly be lassoed into working with the Democratic legislature instead of against them. The fact that Arnold has yet to put forward a single substantive campaign proposal seems to suggest very strongly that he is going to seek to run his campaign based upon celebrity alone: this is hardly what the people of California, or Republicans in general, need at this critical juncture.

A lot of Republicans are getting behind Schwarzenegger on the grounds that he will help President Bush’s chances of winning California (and its fifty-five electoral votes). However, there is no guarantee that, as Governor, Schwarzenegger would even endorse Bush, especially if Bush remains neutral on the matter of the recall. It should be recalled that, in 1994, New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (a Republican who is seemingly less liberal than Schwarzenegger) endorsed Mario Cuomo for re-election as New York Governor over the relatively conservative George Pataki (who, in the year of the Republican Passover, won anyways). A Schwarzenegger elected with largely liberal Republican, independent, and Democratic votes will not feel any great debt of gratitude to the national GOP, and his advisors will certainly not be enthusiastic for the President, nor will his wife.

There are two Republicans in this race worthy of conservative support: businessman (and former Gubernatorial candidate) Bill Simon and State Senator Tom McClintock. Though, at present, both are in single digits in the polls (9% for McClintock and 8% for Simon) their totals combined are only five percent less than Schwarzenegger, who has enjoyed more than a week of free media and who had far higher initial name recognition. If one of the two conservatives were to pull out of the race now and endorse the other, the election would suddenly be a three-way contest between liberal Democrat Cruz Bustamante, liberal Republican/RINO Arnold Schwarzenegger, and a real, authentic, conservative Republican.

But, in all reality, it’s even better than that. As his few known policy positions and his choice of advisors makes crystal clear, Arnold Schwarzenegger is effectively a Democrat. The only thing which earns him support from any great number of California Republicans is his name and the fact that the specifics of his views are generally unknown. A relentless attack by conservative Republicans will reduce Schwarzenegger’s overall level of support, but not eradicate it. However, more of the votes he wins will come from voters who would otherwise end up voting for a Democrat.

Roughly a third of the California electorate is made up of conservative Republicans. This is the base which won last year’s GOP Primary for Bill Simon and which has loyally supported the Republican cause through several disastrous electoral cycles. If this base can be mobilized, with the rest of the voters divided between a number of liberal and moderate candidates, 30% of the vote or thereabouts will be all that is needed to elect the next Governor of California.

Which candidate should pull out? This I cannot say. Bill Simon has more money and more name recognition, but Tom McClintock is better liked among the conservative base. Frankly, in my opinion, either would be fine: certainly an improvement over any of the other options.

If this is to come off it will not be pretty. There is only about a month and a half between now and the election. Whichever Republican goes forwards will have to fight this campaign as though it’s a Republican Primary, campaigning hard to the right on the issues and tearing into Schwarzenegger’s record and views. It will not find approval among the media, much of the conservative establishment, or the Administration, who are always cautious in these sorts of things. But it will work. If the Republican conservatives of California can choose a single candidate and push them on through, then they will win this election and begin the long process of restoring the lustre of the formerly Golden State.